Title : Navigating the sustainable aviation fuel landscape in Brazil: Resources, barriers, and policy pathways
Abstract:
Brazil’s abundant biomass resources position the country as a potential cornerstone in the global effort to decarbonize aviation through Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). This study provides a techno-economic and policy-focused assessment of Brazil’s capacity to develop a large-scale SAF industry, crucial for meeting international climate obligations and domestic energy security goals. Our analysis confirms the availability of approximately 61 million metric tons per year of sugarcane straw and bagasse, alongside 21 million metric tons per year of wood processing residues. Utilizing the well-established Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) biochemical pathway, these feedstocks hold a theoretical production potential of up to 6.48 billion liters and 1.9 billion liters of SAF per year, respectively. When combined, this output could address a substantial portion of Brazil’s current annual jet fuel consumption, estimated at approximately 9 billion liters, demonstrating a viable pathway toward near-complete domestic supply substitution.
However, this significant potential remains unrealized. Currently, SAF represents less than 0.6% of global aviation fuel volumes, with its development in Brazil impeded by economic challenges. Current production costs for biomass-derived SAF via ATJ and related pathways are estimated at two to six times that of conventional fossil kerosene, influenced by feedstock logistics, capital-intensive biorefining, and certification expenses. This research employs a comprehensive policy analysis framework to examine the domestic regulatory environment, including the fuel certification specifications of ANP Resolution 856/2021 and the carbon credit mechanism under the RenovaBio program. We identify three systemic barriers: the lack of a specific, volumetric SAF blending mandate, which creates market uncertainty; a complex and multi-layered environmental licensing process that varies across states, delaying project deployment; and the high cost and time required for the ASTM D7566 certification of new production pathways, which stifles innovation.
Our findings indicate that overcoming these barriers requires an integrated policy strategy that moves beyond isolated incentives. We propose a coordinated governance model centered on the immediate implementation of a progressive national SAF blending mandate, starting at one percent by volume by 2028 and scaling to ten percent by 2035. This regulatory signal must be coupled with targeted fiscal instruments, such as production tax credits, low-interest financing via BNDES, and integration into the CBIOs market under RenovaBio with specific multipliers for aviation. Additionally, streamlining the environmental licensing into a unified federal process and establishing a national fund to subsidize ASTM certification for pioneering plants are identified as essential enabling steps.
The urgency for this policy framework is underscored by two converging timelines: the impending mandatory phase of the International Civil Aviation Organization’s CORSIA scheme in 2027, which will impose carbon offsetting costs on Brazilian airlines, and Brazil’s enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution commitment to reduce GHG emissions by 53.1% by 2030. Developing a domestic SAF industry is not merely an energy transition opportunity but a strategic imperative to maintain competitiveness in global aviation, attract green investment, and translate Brazil’s bioenergy prowess into tangible climate action. This study concludes that without such a coherent and forceful policy package, Brazil risks forgoing a leadership role in the emerging global clean aviation economy.
